Posted by
John C. Walker on Sunday, August 12, 2007 10:16:26 AM
The 2nd and 3rd place finishes of Huckabee and Brownback in Iowa is both a pleasant surprise and
a disappointment.
Only 6 days prior, a Washington Post/ABC News poll of likely caucus voters showed that the absent 3 (Giuliani, Thompson, and McCain) would finish easily at 2, 3 and 4. This made it look like Christian conservatives would not be an influence on the election, or perhaps more importantly, that they didn't care.
Clearly, the liberal media was wrong. While I personally expected either Brownback or Huckabee to be a top finisher, to see them both at the top was a huge victory for the Christian conservatives.
The media is also ignoring the fact that their
combined percentages exceed what Romney won the poll with. This is a
significant fact. It clearly establishes that the Christian
conservatives, who have been silent so far in the GOP contest, clearly
are a voting force that will have to be dealt with. Additionally, if you consider the fact that Romney is currently promoting those same values (his negative only being his recent conversion to these beliefs), fully 2/3rds of the voters exclaimed that these values are the heart of the Republican party. It is said of the Iowa race that there only three finishes that count: win, place and show. Conservative values took all of these and the liberal media was blindsided by it.
Unfortunately, these two candidates are, in fact, courting the same
Christian conservative vote. It was my hope that one of them would not
finish well so that we could have a single conservative candidate
building momentum into the primaries.
Brownback's
weaknesses are that he does not have executive experience (neither does
Hillary or Obama) and that he is Catholic (and more significantly, a
convert). Among the Christian evangelicals, a quick scan of various
blogs reveals that significant hate for the Catholic Church still
exists. As usual, it centers on myths, not truths, about Catholic
beliefs.
Huckabee's weaknesses are that he has no experience in
federal politics and there are questions about his ability to be a
fiscal conservative. The latter could be a huge weakness in 2008 given
the current Administration's spending train. Huckabee is a Baptist
minister which means little to an orthodox Catholic who, respecting the Church's
teaching, recognizes that many Baptists are among the elect (and that many Catholics aren't).
Perhaps
Huckabee and Brownback can meet in a room and flip a coin to determine
who should go forward as the Christian conservative voice.
While Brownback remains my first choice, the results of the poll might suggest he should bow out and move his resources behind Huckabee. Huckabee spent roughly $50 per vote and finished second. That's 1/3 what Brownback spent and 1/10 the amount Romney spent per vote. Brownback's campaign is vastly better run than Huckabee's, but Huckabee is the better public speaker and it is clear he can appeal to the masses better than Brownback. If Brownback would shift his well-oiled machine to Huckabee's team, we would have a real Christian conservative challenge in the race.
John C. Walker
Software Architect, Charlotte, NC